● Summary
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summary This research report analyzes and discusses factors affecting changes in population distribution. Based on the assumption that the establishment of large-scale commercial facilities is a factor of migration, the report focuses on the correlation between population distribution and distance from city centers and large-scale commercial facilities. Firstly, data on population distribution of 606 municipalities nationwide (a total of 690 districts) between 1995 and 2000 was collected to determine the structural change in urban population. The 606 municipalities selected are those which formulated the City Center Vitalization Basic Plan, based on the former Act on the Improvement and Vitalization in City Centers. A city center decline was observed in 361 cities (53% of the total). When population changes of prefectural capitals were compiled based on the theory of "Processes of Urban Development" by Klaassen and Paelink, a population decline or "de-urbanization" was observed in some prefectural capitals with a population of less than 500 thousand. Secondly, more detailed case studies were conducted involving the cities of Utsunomiya, Okazaki, Hikone, Nagahama, Kitakyushu, Sasebo and Kumamoto. Population density, employment density and posted land prices were used as objective variables, and travel distance from the city center or large-scale commercial facilities in each city section (cho-cho-moku) were used as explanatory variables to conduct a regression analysis based on the theoretical model of polycentric city structure proposed by Anas, Arnott and Small. In addition, site surveys, including interviews, on-site visits and compilation of visual data using GIS (population increase/decrease of each section shown on the map), were conducted to shed light on all possible factors affecting population distribution changes. No clear correlation between the travel distance from the commercial facility having the largest floor area and population distribution changes in city sections between 1995 and 2000 was observed in the case cities. Through site surveys the direct impact of the establishment of large-scale commercial facilities on: a) population increase (e.g. housing development) and b) employment increase (e.g. a new shopping facility attracting businesses in other categories) was partly observed. On the other hand, the impact of development projects based on regional/city plans and policies (including improvement of major roads and urban areas, or zoning change) was observed in all cities. Such projects are likely to have a greater influence on changes in population distribution.
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Key words |
hanges in social structure, commercial facilities, trends of declining birthrate, aging of the population and depopulation, town and section (cho-cho-moku), population distribution change |
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issue |
Reports No.76/2007 Jul. |
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stocks |
in stock(weight:830g thickness:17mm) We distribute all reports on request . If You desire mailing , click here . |
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detail pop.date |
detail(Japanese)(PDF:29.7MB)supplement(Japanese)
(PDF:130kB) data making point(Japanese)(EXCEL:1.03KB) 1995 data(processing)(Japanese)(EXCEL:51.8MB) 1995 data(original)(Japanese)(EXCEL:48.5MB) 2000 data(Japanese)(EXCEL:50.2MB)) |