PART I   General Outlook of Transport Economy in FY 1978


Chapter 1  Economic Trends and Transportation Activities


1. 1 World Economy


   The world economy in 1978 continued to recover from the worst postwar recession caused by the 1973 global oil crisis But the growth during the year was as slow as m 1977 The U S economy, which had showed a steady pickup m the preceding years, began to slow down somewhat m 1978 But the economic recovery m Japan and European countries was increasingly secure As a result, the gap m economic recovery between the world's major economic powers was less prominent in 1978 than in 1977.


1. 2 Japanese Economy


   Featuring the trends of the Japanese economy in 1978 were signs of a full fledged comeback of domestic demand, which had been stagnant for years Until 1977 the Japanese economy was predominantly dependent on demand caused by passive factors such as exports and government spending on public works Domestic demand was the main propellant in 1978 The recovery in the year was backed by the excellent performance of main economic indicators - relatively stable prices, better equilibrium of the balance of payments, improvement m the employment situation and increased corporate earnings.


1. 3 Transportation


   With regard to domestic transportation in FY 1978, both freight and passenger transport enjoyed the biggest annual growth since the 1973 world oil crisis, supported by the economic recovery that gamed momentum after the middle of the year In international transportation, the passenger sector continued to fare well, whereas the freight sector slumped with the volumes of both exports and imports showing appreciable drops as compared with FY 1977. (See Table 1)
   In FY 1978, the recovery of domestic demand became accelerated as the year wore on, and mining and manufacturing production increased each quarter of the year Reflecting this economic recovery, domestic freight transportation grew steadily throughout the year It registered a 58% increase over the preceding year m terms of ton kilometers By transportation mode, both truck and coastal shipping transportation showed marked gams as compared with FY 1977 Railway transportation also increased, though modestly.
   Domestic passenger transportation, which is closely related to real personal consumption expenditures, increased by 51% in terms of passenger kilometers over FY 1977 - the steepest annual increase since the 1973 oil crisis Car transportation, especially by passenger cars, led the growth of the overall passenger transportation as economic recovery became steady m the latter half of FY 1978 Air transportation has been growing annually over the past years The trend continued m FY 1978, as the number of flights was increased and new air routes opened Year to Year increases were big particularly m the latter part of the year.
   In international passenger transportation, the number of Japanese traveling abroad was on the steady increase m recent years, as their income improved and they found overseas trips less expensive as a result of the yen's appreciation against the dollar. The number of foreign tourists visiting Japan, recovering since FY1975 after a major drop in the oil crisis year of 1973, grew by some 10% annually in recent years. In FY1978, both were affected by the wild fluctuations in the yen-dollar exchange rate. Though the number of Japanese traveling abroad showed a 14.9% increase over FY1977, while the number of foreigners visiting Japan virtually leveled off.


1. 4 Balance of Payments



   Japan's overall balance of payments (IMF formula) showed a deficit of $2, 297 million in FY1978 (a surplus of $ 12,145 million in FY1977), the first shortfall in three years.
   Invisible trade (services), involving such as transportation, travel, investment income, etc., was in deficit by $7,772 million, $1,850 million or 31.2% more than the FY1977 deficit. Figure 1 shows the trends since FY1973 of Japan's balance of payments relating to transportation. The figures listed indicate that Japan suffered annual deficits in all of shipping, aviation and tourism in recent years. In FY1978, Japan's tourism deficit increased by $2,026 million from the preceding year. Japan had an overall deficit relating to transportation of $6,457 million, or $2,433 million more than in FYI 977.
   Table 2 shows the details of balance of payments in shipping, aviation, and tourism.

 


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