CHAPTER 2. PROBLEMS GENERA TED BY CHANGES IN TRANSPORTATION PATTERNS

　 　 Reviewing changes in transportation patterns it has been found that use of motor vehicles for transportation of both passengers and cargo is increasing. However, reliance on railways is also growing in large cities. As for inter-region transportation over medium distances, use of the Shinkansen is increasing, and for long distance inter-region transportation use of airlines is increasing. Both of these trends are attributed to the strengthening demand for high-speed transport. It has also been found that the use of public transportation by elderly people is increasing along with the rise in the average age of the society. Problems generated by such changes in utilization of transportation are analyzed hereafter.

1. Problems generated by increased use of motor vehicles

(1) Worsening of condition of road traffic congestion
　 　 In large cities and their surrounding areas, the congestion on both general roads and urban expressways is worsening [Fig. 23, Fig. 24].
　 　 In core cities and other cities, concentration of population and business functions of the area is accelerating, and serious traffic congestion is seen during rush hours in morning and evening at entry and exit points of these cities. This problem is not as critical as it is in large cities. Congestion on expressways, particularly on main routes such as the Tomei or Meishin highways, is also becoming more serious due to the increase in the volume of traffic.
(2) Increases in road traffic accidents
　 　 Road traffic accidents in 1970 resulted in almost 17,000 fatalities, and this was earning it the title the "traffic war." Annual fatalities tended to decrease afterwards but again began to increase after 1980 The annual number of traffic fatalities has continued to exceed 10 thousand during the 5 years since 1988, and this unfortunate situation is called "the second traffic war", which still continues [Fig. 25].
(3) Global environmental problem
　 　 Increased density of C02 and other gases is said to cause global warming. Japan produces about 5% of the world's C02 emissions. In 1990 the "Strategical Plan for Prevention of Global Warming" was produced, the target of which is to keep the per capita amount of emitted C02 static at the nearly 1990 level until after 2,000 and to maintain the total amount of exhaust gas emission at a certain static level. The Government is taking various measures to restrain emissions of C02 and other gases.
　 　 The transportation industry relies on petroleum for 98% of its energy, from which emissions of C02 make up 20% of the total emissions of C02 in Japan.
　 　 In particular, emission of C02 per unit of transport is very high in motor vehicle transportation compared to other means of transportation. The rise in the volume of traffic increases the total amount of exhaust, making up about 90% of the emissions of the whole transportation industry.
　 　 Nitrogen oxide (NOx) is controlled by a law to prevent air pollution, and attention is being paid to its role in causing acid rain.
　 　 Since motor vehicles constitute a major source of NOx emissions, enforcement of controls on volume of NOx emissions from individual cars has been also strengthened by stages. However, the volume of motor vehicle traffic in large cities is sharply increasing. For cargo transportation, diesel cars and trucks which emit high levels of NOx are increasing owing to their advantages in efficient fuel consumption and high power. Also, lower traffic speeds caused by road congestion contribute to increases in NOx emissions.
(4) Energy
　 　 With world energy demand increasing into the next century, the supply of fossil fuels such as petroleum is expected to decrease and become the focus of efforts to control the global warming they cause.
　 　 Transportation is a major energy consuming sector, and the energy efficiency of motor vehicles is particularly low. With the increasing volume of traffic, energy consumption in this area is growing. Therefore, it is necessary to promote use of public transportation, develop energy-saving transportation systems, and promote introduction of measures to save energy in 'various transportation facilities space [Fig. 26,Fig. 27].
(5) Labor shortage
　 　 Since truck transportation business is by nature labor intensive, and because the work load is generally heavy and working hours are long and irregular, this industry is apt to be avoided by those selecting an occupation, causing serious labor shortages, particularly with regard to young workers [Fig. 28].
　 　 At the same time, Japanese society is aging, and the working age population is projected to decrease after peaking in 1995. Hence, it is forecast that the labor shortage will be even more serious in the future.
(6) Assuring transportation in less populated areas and other rural areas
　 　 In less populated and other rural areas, the volume of passenger traffic by bus or railway is decreasing as the result of decreases in population and diffusion of private passenger cars, causing some areas difficulties in providing public transportation. Under the circumstances, assuring public transportation service for elderly or young people who have no other means of daily transportation is becoming a serious problem in need of attention in such areas.

2. Problems relating to use of public transportation system

(1) Congestion of transportation for commuting in large cities
　 　 With the increasing concentration of population and business functions in large cities, the population commuting is also increasing. Therefore, in these cities mass transit for commuters between urban and suburban areas relies heavily on railways, which are severely congested during rush hours [Fig. 29]. In addition, distances between urban areas and suburban residential areas have become much longer in recent years. Consequently commute times are getting longer. In conjunction with the severe crowding on the trains, this tires workers and causes lower labor efficiency.
　 　 This situation is considered to be one of the reasons people do not feel not as affluent as economic figures indicate particularly in large cities.
(2) Congestion of main transportation facilities in large metropolitan areas
　 　 Along with the accelerating centralization around Tokyo, demand for the Tokaido Shinkansen is steadily increasing, and there is chronic congestion during the morning and evening rush hours [Fig. 30]. Even though various measures are being implemented in planned stages to augment transportation capacity, such as by increasing the number of trains in operation, demand for transportation has grown much faster, so the congestion is scarcely alleviated.
　 　 Air transport service has been developed with emphasis on service for the two metropolitan areas of Tokyo and Osaka, with demand concentrated mostly on the Tokyo International Airport and the Osaka International Airport. Currently, passengers who use at least either of them make up about 80% of total air passengers.
　 　 However, these airports are reaching capacity limits owing to the imbalance between the increasing number of aircraft landing and taking-off and restrictions on airport facilities. As long as the current situation continues it will not be possible to meet the needs of local areas to increase aviation service.
(3) Assurance of transportation for elderly and physically handicapped persons
　 　 The average age in Japan is increasing, and it is forecast that one in 4 people will be 65 years of age or older in the year 2020. The number of handicapped people is also increasing.
　 　 Participation in recreational and social activities by elderly and physically handicapped persons is increasing [Fig. 31], and providing safer and less burdensome means of mobility for these persons is deemed to be an important issue. It is necessary, therefore, to take into account the concerns of elderly and physically handicapped persons in providing public transportation.