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The 1970s were a turbulent decade for the Japanese economy. During that decade, the rapid growth period ended and the economy, weathering the greatest postwar recession caused by the first oil crisis, entered a path of stable growth. The transport industry, which is the basis of both economic activities and the life of the people, underwent such changes as will be discussed hereafter against the background of changing international and domestic situations, and many problems have been brought forward into the 1980s for solution.
(1) Domestic Transport During the 1970s, the total load demand in transport
slowed down in its quantitative expansion. A rise in the living standard of
the people and changes in their mental attitudes stimulated tourism and increased
the people's overall mobility. The tourist population also changed with an increase
in the proportion of family tours. In the choice of means of transport, people
began to pay attention not only to the cost but also to the quality of service.
Preference for passenger cars for personal use as well as aviation and Shinkansen
grew stronger. In provincial districts, the difference of mobility between motorists
and nonmotorists is posing serious problem in connection with the decline of
public transport systems. (cf.
Figs. 7(1) (2)
and 8 and Table 11)
The first structural change in transport was the rapid progress of motorization
throughout Japan and spread of passenger cars for personal use. During the past
decade, personal passenger cars' share of the total domestic transport in passenger-kilometerage
increased from 23.3% to 39.0%, the number of cars owned for personal use increased
by about 220% or about 22,500,000 vehicles and such cars came to represent 60.3%
of the total cars owned in Japan, which number about 37,300,000 vehicles. It
means that one out of about every five Japanese owns a personal car. (See
Fig. 9)
The second structural change was a decrease in railway payload. During the
past decade, railways' share of the total domestic transport in passenger-kilometerage
decreased from 52.1% to 40.2% and is declining further. The Japanese National
Railways suffered a decline in its share in all distance ranges. In short-distance
transport, automobiles, and in middle- and long-distance transport, aircraft
made remarkable advances. (See Fig.
10) This seems to be due to a relative decline in the JNR' s competitive
edge caused by the increased competitive strength of airlines, etc.
The third structural change was a further decline in passenger's use of buses.
This was mainly due to the fact that in large cities buses ceased to be punctual
and reliable as a result of traffic jams and little has been made to improve
the bus services, and in provincial areas, load demand for buses decreased because
of the thinning-out of the population and progress in motorization.
The fourth is the remarkable progress of aviation. Airline payload (passenger-kilometerage)
has increased by about 330% in the past decade, according to calculations, two
out of every five Japanese rode aircraft in fiscal 1979. Thus, aviation is becoming
as an integral part of the people 's life.
In addition, there have been striking increases in bicycles and motorbikes
. In the past 10 years, the number of bicycles and that of motorbikes increased
by about 140% to about 8,800,000 units. But the biology boom has spawned a new
problem: bicycle jungles in front of railway stations .
(2) International Transport
The age of overseas tours by the masses of people has arrived. During 1979,
a total of 4,040,000 Japanese made overseas tours, an increase of about 720%
over a decade before, and a total of 1,110,000 foreigners arrived in Japan,
an increase of about 80%. (cf. Fig.
11)
As factors which caused such an increase in the number of Japanese making
overseas tours, we can point out the easing of restrictions on the amount of
foreign currencies which Japanese can take out from Japan and the popularization
of package tours through the introduction of group discounts, as well as a rise
in the people's income level and the growth of Japanese interest in foreign
countries.
The proportion of package tours in overseas tours by Japanese is increasing.
Per Japanese overseas spending was about $1,200 in 1979, an increase of about
140% over the $490 or so 10 years before.
The payload for Japanese airlines on international routes increased by about
280% to 23 billion passenger-kilometers a year compared with 1O years before.
(1) Domestic Transport
The growth of domestic cargo transport during the 1970s was only 50% of the
growth during the 1960s, the decade of high-rate growth of the Japanese economy.
The slowdown was mainly induced by the recession following the first oil crisis.
The cargo volume suddenly declined with fiscal 1972 as the peak in tonnage
and fiscal 1973 as the peak in ton-kilometerage, then recovered by tracing a
U-type and V-type curve with fiscal 1976 and fiscal 1975 respectively as the
bottoms and topped the past peaks in fiscal 1979 and fiscal 1978 respectively.
(cf. Table 12 and
Fig.s 12 and 13)
As factors which caused the recovery, we can cite the resurgence of the real
GNP due to the recovery of public investment and private investment in plants
and facilities as well as the revitalization of industries related to mainstay
cargo items.
If we examine the structural changes in transport, we note a decline in railways
' share in cargo transport due to changes in industrial locations , urbanization
of provincial areas and progress in motorization and the growth and stabilization
of motor vehicle transport and coastal shipping.
JNR cargo, with its peak in fiscal 1970, declined to about two-thirds of
the peak level in fiscal 1979, and JNR's share of the total domestic cargo transport
declined by about 10 points during the past decade to 9.6%.
As factors which caused the drop in JNR's share, we can point out, at first,
the changes in the structure of Japanese industry and structural changes in
industrial locations. Transport of coal and lumber, the main cargo items, decreased
as a result of an energy switch from coal to oil and increased dependence on
overseas supplies of primary products. Distances of transport declined as a
result of relocation of industry in the neighborhood of large cities, which
are consuming centers, construction of industrial complexes in waterfront areas
and location of inland industrial developments along arterial roads. All these
robbed railways of much of their payload. Second, railways failed to cope promptly
with the needs of the shippers. Because the terminal cost in railway transport
is high, the cost of transport per kilometer decreases in inverse proportion
to the distance covered. Accordingly , compared with trucking where the per
kilometer cost rises with the distance , railway transport should have an edge
in medium- and long-distance haulage , but the fact is that trucking is more
economical than railways even in medium- and long-distance transport.
Fourth, the JNR forfeited the trust of the shippers because of frequent crippling
labor disputes.
Demand for motor vehicle transport increased by about 40% in the past 1O
years. This is about one-fifth of the growth during the 1960s, the high-rate
growth period. Slowdown in growth characterizes the recent trend in motor vehicle
transport. However, the proportion of transport by commercial trucks has shown
a significant increase, particularly in medium- and long-distance transport.
(See Fig. 14)
Although the growth of volume transported has decreased, motor vehicle transport
attained this expansion and stability. Why? First, cargo items of small lots,
high added value and big freight-bearing capacity, such as metal and machine
industry, have increased as a result of structural change in industry, and demand
for trucking has grown because the shippers took notice of its merits , such
as the door-to-door transport capability , high maneuverability , prompt delivery
, availability for small-lot cargo , and reliability . Second, the concentration
of the population and industry in the Pacific belt and relocation of some industries
along arterial roads through the construction of inland industrial developments
have shortened the distances of transport, and trucking, which best displays
its strength in medium- and short-distance transportation, has been favored
by the shippers. Third, with the progress of urbanization , such cargo tiems
as gravel , sand, stones and cement , which are used in civil engineering projects,
as well as waste matters, have increased, and trucking, which can undertake
terminal transport, has been much used. Fourth, the transport capacity of trucking
has been increased through rapid expansion and improvement of highways, construction
of truck terminals and the growth in size of trucks as shown by the advent of
12-ton loaders.
The load demand in coastal shipping increased by about 70% in the past decade,
and coastal shipping's share of the total transport demand was 51.1% in fiscal
1979, up 8.6 points above 10 years before.
Coastal shipping, whose strength lies in its ability to carry a very large
volume of cargo at a low freight rate, has attained its growth for various reasons.
Firstly, Japan's geographical condition is suited to coastal shipping. Secondly,
specialized and larger carriers have been placed on coastal services to cope
with such developments in the Japanese economy as the switch of the energy source
from coal to oil, growth of heavy and chemical industries in waterfront areas,
increased dependence on imported resources and the consequent increased demand
for item-by-item transport. Thirdly, the coastal shipping industry effectively
responded to the needs of the shippers and consignees by constructing such port
facilities as specialized quays and mechanizing cargo-handling work.
Domestic air cargo increased by about 240% in tonnage and by about 370% in
ton-kilometerage in the past decade. Air transport has been increasingly used
for cargo items of high added value and/or of hifh emergency and specifically
for consolidated perishable cargo items. (See Table
13) This was because there were first, a growing need for speedy delivery
as a result of the nationwide expansion of the distribution market centering
on goods with high added value, second, the increased recognition of the economic
merit of air cargo transport and, third, the increased carrying capacity of
aircraft due to the introduction of jumbo jets.
There were structural changes in transportation in which regional dispersion
of industry progressed. Though cargo arrivals at and departures from the Pacific
belt are still great in volume, their proportion has decreased.
By item, chemicals, construction materials and waste matters are rising in
proportion .
(2) International Transport
In international seaborne trade, both exports and imports doubled in the
past 10 years. Increasingly large ships have been placed on service; containerization
has progressed; specialized carriers have been increasingly used; and foreign
trade ports have been expanded and improved. Air cargo increased by about 440%
during the past 19 years.
(1) Passenger Transport
A major task relating to passenger transport is to improve local transport
services. Not only in large cities but also in smaller cities which constitute
the centers of regional blocs, motorization is progressing and the population
increasing, leading to traffic jams environmental pollution, and rising incidence
of traffic accidents. There is also delay in the improvement of public transport.
Improvement and expansion of such public transport services as railways and
buses are imperative. In sparsely populated rural and mountainous areas, population
outflux and rapid motorization are making maintenance of railway and bus services
difficult, and how to ensure public transport service as a "civil minimum" is
a big problem.
In the planning and enforcement of measures to improve local transport services,
the first thing to be done is to appraise the role and function of passenger
cars for private use and establish a reasonable way to share the transport demand
between such cars and public transport in order to enhance mobility in a regional
community and create an affluent regional community. Secondly, public transport
should be maintained in provincial areas as a civil minimum and effective measures,
including financial aid, should be taken to stimulate utilization of public
transport in lieu of passenger cars for personal use in cities.
In the expansion of the arterial transport system, attention should be given
to the efficiency of investment, the limited availability of energy, acquisition
of traffic space, conservation of environment and changes in socioeconomic conditions
related to transportation. A transport system in which each means of transport
can best display its characteristics and which is the most efficient from the
viewpoint of the national economy should be completed. Such a transport system
has never been more strongly needed than now.
(2) Freight Transport
The business climate for cargo transport services is expected to become increasingly
unfavorable hereafter because , for one thing, the low growth of load demand
will become a stable mid- or long-term trend. As a result, competition among
various carriers will intensify. Given the present high energy cost, a further
reduction in the cost of transport through the streamlining of operations and
improvement in the efficiency of transport by carriers will be required in a
greater degree than in the past. Second, the availability of energy will become
even tighter. Third , the limitations on the availability of spaces in cities
and environmental limitations will also become stronger. There is the growing
public outcry against pollution generated by transport such as noise, vibration
and gas emission. There is also the problem of traffic jams in large cities.
Given such prospects , efforts should be made to complete a transport system
in which each means of transport undertakes the transport best suited to its
characteristics, the nation's total transport cost is lowered and optimum efficiency
is ensured through close cooperation among different mode transport. Efforts
should also be made to establish an energy-saving low-pollution system of cargo
transport which can meet the various limitations, such as the limitation of
energy, the limitation on the availability of space and the environmental limitation,
and also safety requirements. All the above efforts should be made while coping
with the growth, structural changes and diversification of transport demand
in order to ensure a stable growth of the national economy and improve the life
of the people.
In the vehicular transport field, measures to improve the efficiency of trucking
should be taken, including measures to ensure smooth transport of aggregate
and waste measures to protect residents from the noise and vibration caused
by large trucks at midnight and in predawn hours, measures to promote use of
commercial trucks instead of trucks owned by the cargo shippers, and measures
to encourage joint transport of goods.
Cargo transport by the Japanese National Railways (JNR) now accounts for
only 9.6% of the total ton-kilometerage of domestic cargo transport. But railways
display a superb economic advantage in mass transport of a fixed cargo. In its
share of overland transport of such goods as grain, chemicals and fertilizers,
the JNR tanks higher than trucks. Its share of land transport of petroleum products
is slightly less than 50%. The JNR should shift the emphasis of its operations
to mass transport of cargo of a fixed pattern while carrying out such streamlining
measures as consolidation of yards and stations and abolition of inefficient
ones. (Cf. Fig. 17)
Coastal shipping's share of the domestic cargo transport on the ton-kilometerage
basis was 51.1% in fiscal 1979. Carrying the greater part of such basic industrial
materials as oil, coal, steel and limestone, coastal shipping is performing
an important role in the Japanese economy. Coastal shipping's strength lies
in its capacity to carry a large volume of cargo at a low cost. One problem
for coastal shipping, however, is how to lower the transport cost by tackling
the high energy cost To lower the transport cost efforts should be made to modernize
the fleet, streamline the mangement and improve the efficiency of ship operation.
Efforts should be made to promote an integrated transport system, establish
physical distribution centers, streamline physical distribution in cities and
reexamine its way of carrying small-lot cargo.
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