PART　I 　 Outline of Transport Economy in Fiscal 1980

Chapter　1.　Economic Trends and Transport Activities


1. 1　Economic Trends


　 　Overcoming the aftereffects of the first oil crisis, the world economy was generally on the new track of expansion. Since the turn of 1980, however, the world economy has surf-fired gradual setbacks as the effects of the staged, sharp increases in oil prices since 1978, the so-called second oil crisis, spread around the globe, resulting in the deterioration of economic performances in all countries of the world.
　 　In these circumstances, Japan was able to demonstrate a relatively favorable economic performance, achieving the highest growth rate among the advanced countries. However, Japan was no exception in experiencing the difficulties brought about by the second oil crisis. In fiscal 1980, as a result of the large-scale income transfer to oil producing countries caused by their drastic increases in oil prices, the Japanese economy suffered a deeper stagnation in the growth of real income than it did at the time of the first oil crisis, and the pace of its expansion slowed down.
　 　In terms of final demand, private final consumption expenditures increased by 0.3% (on a real GNP basis) over the previous fiscal year, private housing investment decreased by 10.1%, and public fixed capital formation decreased by 0.5%, respectively, from the previous fiscal year. By contrast, private plant and equipment investment increased by 5.7%, and exports by 16.6%, respectively, over the previous fiscal year though the pace of their expansion slowed down. These sectors helped activate the economy. (Table 1)

1. 2　Passenger Transport

(1) International passenger transport
　 　The trend of international passenger transport in Japan in fiscal 1980 is shown in Table 2.
　 　The trend of foreign visitors to Japan had the following features: 1) the number of foreign visitors to Japan increased from almost all countries: 2) as a result of the liberalization of emigrations in Taiwan (January 1979), the number of visitors from Taiwan increased sharply. The increase rate of foreign visitors to Japan was the highest since 1970 when the World Exposition was held in Osaka.
　 　The trend of Japanese tourists overseas had the following features: 1) the number of male tourists, mainly those of middle age, decreased: 2) short-distance trips to the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, and other Asian countries decreased sharply. The number of Japanese tourists overseas decreased for the first time since 1964 when overseas travels were liberalized. The 1980 figure was below the 4 million mark reached the previous year.
(2) Domestic passenger transport
　 　Due to sluggish personnal consumption, domestic passenger transport in fiscal 1980 registered a total of 51.7 billion persons, and 782 billion passenger-kilometers, both up 0.6% over the previous fiscal year, in contrast to the steady increases in fiscal 1978 and 1979.
　 　Transport in fiscal 1980 had the following features: 1) the activities of various transport means, excluding the private railways, declined or leveled off; 2) the increase rate of private cars fell sharply; and 3) air transport suffered a setback for the first time in 14 years. (Table 3 and Fig. 1)

1. 3　Freight Transport

(1) International freight transport
　 　Japan's international freight transport by oceangoing shipping in fiscal 1980 in terms of tonnage decreased by 1.2% for export and 1.8% for import, respectively, from the previous fiscal year. By item for export, automobiles increased by 26.0%, and machinery and electric equipment by more than 20%, while steel and cement showed conspicuous decreases.
　 　By item for import, coal increased by 22.9% because of its growing demand as a substitute for oil. Lumber decreased by 17.5% due to stagnant demand from housing. Crude oil also decreased by 9.5% since its demand had been curbed by soaring prices.
　 　Japan's freight transport by international air during fiscal 1980 saw a sharp 15.6% increase for export in terms of tonnage over the previous fiscal year, thanks to the marked increases in such items as electric equipment and precision instruments. Imports rose by only 0.5% although the increase rate surpassed the previous year's level. However, it was far below the 15.7% achieved in fiscal 1979. (Table 4)
(2) Domestic freight transport
　 　The increase rate of freight transport, which increased steadily in fiscal 1978 and 1979, fell sharply in fiscal 1980 due to stagnant business and other factors. The total volume of transport reached 5.99 billion tons, higher than the previous fiscal year's level which was the highest ever, though the increase rate was only 0.5%. In terms of ton-kilometerage, it registered 439 billion, a decrease of 0.7%. The decline was the first since fiscal 1975. (Table 5 and Fig. 2)
　 　Freight transport in fiscal 1980 had the following features: 1) all the transport means suffered setbacks or stagnant growth in their activities; 2) the stagnation was conspicuous in construction materials and oil products which normally take a large portion of freight transport; 3) coastal shipping suffered a decline for the first time in five years in terms of both tonnage and ton-kilometerage; and 4) the JNR, which has been suffering a long-term declining tendency, registered a decrease of more than 10% in terms of both tonnage and ton-kilometerage.

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