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A review of the 1982 world economy shows that many of the major industrialized
countries were in the state of business stagnation for three consecutive years
after the second oil crisis and faced the severe unemployment situation though
the rate of increase in prices went down as a whole. Meanwhile, the developing
countries were also affected by the prolonged global recession, and oil exporting
countries suffered a deficit for the first time in their current account balances
after 1970 while the economic growth of non-oil producing countries hit an all-time
low after World War II.
The foremost factor for such a lengthy global recession is the long-term
continuity of high interest rates, which exerted great deflational impact on
the economy of many countries in the world.
In 1983 there were signs in sight for the recovery of various countries from
recession, centering around the U.S., but interest rates showed a tendency not
to go lower while many countries were plagued by structural problems, including
deficit-ridden finances. Like this, there were not a few factors causing uncertainty
about their long-term continuation of recovery from recession.
With regard to the Japanese economy in fiscal 1982, the domestic demand indicated
an upward trend, mainly affected favorably by gradual increase in private consumption
expenditures, due to the backdrop of stabilization of prices. However, Japan's
exports marked a decline for the first time in four years due to stagnation
in global business activities after the latter half of fiscal 1981. As a result,
the nation's recovery from recession made slow progress and the real economic
growth rate stood at 3.3 percent (Table
1).
In fiscal 1983 Japanese exports and industrial production increased consequent
upon recovery of the world economy and the domestic demand showed a trend toward
increasing at a slow tempo.
(1) Passenger Transport
A trend of international travels surrounding Japan shows that the number
of visitors to Japan from abroad stood at 1,793,000 in 1982, up 13.3 percent
from the previous year (Fig. 1).
For this, credit goes to the prevalence of a trend toward the unfavorable yen
exchange rate and the relative stabilization of prices in Japan which made the
foreign public feel it would cost them not so much to travel to Japan.
By region, there were many visitors from the United States, Taiwan, and the
Republic of Korea.
The number of Japanese who visited foreign countries in 1982 was 4,086,000,
2.0 percent more than in the preceding year.
Their popular destination included Singapore, Thailand, Hawaii and other countries
in the Asia-Pacific region.
(2) Freight Transport
A study of Japan's volume of trade by sea for 1982 (based on tonnage) shows
that exports registered a drop of 1.9 percent over the previous year, adversely
affected by the prolonged global recession. By item, major goods such as cars,
machinery and electric appliances marked decreases. Meanwhile, imports also
dropped by 1.5 percent compared with the previous year, reflecting the relatively
weak recovery of the domestic demand. By item, crude oil dwindled conspicuously
though coal and lumber made gains.
In international air freight transport, exports marked an increase of 4.8
percent over the previous fiscal year on a tonnage basis, but they dropped below
the preceding fiscal year's levels on a dollar basis. By item (on a dollar basis),
office machines and semiconductor made gains whereas camera and tape-recorder
decreased. Imports, mean while, dropped by 0.2 percent compared with the previous
fiscal year on a tonnage basis. By item (on a doller basis), nonferrous metals
dropped though electric measuring instruments increased (Table
2).
(1)Passenger Transport
The number of passengers in fiscal 1982 totaled 51,977 million, an increase
of 0.4% over the previous fiscal year Passenger-kilometerage in fiscal 1982
totaled 804,400 million, a 1.8% increase over the previous fiscal year (Table
3).
Of particular note in fiscal 1982 are, first, the volume of air passenger
transport decreased back to the fiscal 1980 level. Second, the number of private
passenger cars increased. And third, the number of buses and commercial passenger
cars decreased.
The share of passenger-kilometrage by mode of transport increased for private
passenger cars only and decreased for other modes of transport. The share was
43.1 percent for passenger cars (of which, 41.2 percent for private passenger
cars), 23.7 percent for JNR, 15.6 percent for private railways, 13.0 percent
for buses and 3.7 percent for airlines (Fig.
2).
(2) Freight Transport
Transport tonnage in fiscal 1982 totaled 5,745,845 thousand, a 2.0% decrease
from the previous fiscal year. The decrease continued from the previous fiscal
year. The total transport ran into 417 billion ton-kilometers, chalking up a
drop of 2.5 percent from the previous year. The drop had continued for three
years. (Table 4).
Of particular note in fiscal 1982 were marked, first, by a sizable drop which
JNR suffered for three consecutive years in both transport tonnage and ton-kilometerage;
second, by a drop chalked up by coastal shipping for three years in a row in
the volume of cargo transport; and third, by sizable gains made by airlines
in the volume of freight transport.
The share of ton-kilometrage by mode of transport has continued in the current
fiscal year to dwindle in the case of JNR, private moter vehicles and coastal
shipping, whereas the share made conspicuous increase in the case of commercial
motor vehicles.
The share was, 47.5% for the coastal shipping, 45.0% for automobiles (of
which, 28.0% for business and 17.0% for personal use) and 7.5% railways (Fig.
3).
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